This post reminds me of William Goldman's famous dictum about the movie business: NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING. Really, there's no way to predict in advance how successful a movie will be. It depends on a very complex set of factors that movie moguls have been trying to understand and control for years without success. Even groundbreaking visual technology does not guarantee it, neither does a 'name' director. You're no better or worse than any movie producer in this regard, Scott. Don't be hard on yourself!

Ah, I was just busting on myself with tongue firmly in cheek. Hell, I could go back and copy/paste some hyperbolic fanboy quotes, after seeing the first underwhelming Avatar poster, claiming it would be a total disaster.

But you're right about Goldman's quote re Hwood: Nobody knows anything.

I kind of guessed it would dethrone Titanic and Dark Knight (or vice-versa).
Mainly because I knew Cameron would use a simple story that would be very mainstream.

I think it helps prove my point that High Concept now is really "will my kids like it?"

TF2 helped some also.

Hey Scott. It's really and apples and oranges thing.

Avatar has 3-D, IMAX, and IMAX 3-D screenings at inflated prices. Not to mention the avg ticket price is higher now than it was in 97.

IMAX tickets are almost double what ticket prices were in '97. That's a nice way to inflate box office without having to get more butts in the chairs.