Don't forget the Coens' A SERIOUS MAN... it's already won the NBR and Boston awards for original screenplay. I'd say there's no way it's not honored as (at least) a nominee.

INGLORIOUS has an uphill battle simply for its content. It's really just a fun ride and without that central message (aside from "all Nazis are assholes and deserve to die") it really only has a puncher's chance against some of the stronger stories... Hurt Locker and Up, for example. Even 500 Days shows us a fresh take on romance stories that still comments on life and relationships in a meaningful way. So I'd say it's between 500 and Hurt Locker. Depends on whether the voters lean toward heavy or light-hearted. I'm going with 500 Days of Summer.

UP IN THE AIR is the clear favorite for Adapted SP and I don't see any possibility of it not winning.

Yeah. A Serious Man is great.

But the Academy tend to favor fun movies you know. That why I agree with you. Up in the Air will definitely win.

Inglourious Basterds will win and I think the writers will dismiss the Coens since there are better scripts around like White Ribbon.

That's why I believe the writers will nominate White Ribbon and leave A Serious Man in the nude.