From your blog to the Gods of Cinema's ears, Scott. I'm sort of biding my time, hoping your prediction will be the reality. I think we're due for a nice French New Wave type revolt, eh?

Though I must say, I'm less than enthralled with this year's Sundance offerings. What a drab sounding bunch of toothless films.

But then is it possible that Sundance has been devoured by its own success as well, a dinosaur of its own making?

Re Sundance: It's a new team at the top. Apart from the actual movies submitted, which naturally dictates much of what transpires in terms of the festival's choices, I also suspect that there's a reactionary dynamic going on, the new folks wanting to show some 'independence' from the tack the festival had been going for many years, more and more commercial. And what better way to let the world know than by selecting a bunch of dark, brooding, and depressing movies.

"dark, brooding and depressing"

I'm glad to hear you say that, I was afraid it was just me. I read the bulk of the Sundance selections and their corresponding synopses and loglines you published the other day and I thought, "geez, am I THAT out of touch...? This stuff sounds miserable."

I truly hope you are right about indie films! Last summer, a well-known producer of independent films helped me sell my indie script to a Canadian production company with access to government funding - budget is $4 million Canadian. Other countries are one way to go while indies languish in the US!

VERY interesting analysis of blockbusters vs. higher quality films. Sad, but interesting!

I agree. One thing that the digital revolution will bring, besides an explosion of exciting, previously unknown writers/producers/directors, is a slew of exciting, previously unknown actors who will star in those digital films.

The marketing will also dramatically change. I’m predicting a YouTube type outlet that will feature previews for indies.

One lat thing, Michelle – at one time, the C$4mm would have been laughed at because of the exchange rate, now you have a US$3.78mm film. Congratulations!

I fail to see how these indie films are really going to find a return on their investment.
Is the tiny group of people who are willing to pay to see movies online large enough for indy companies to make money?
Is someone like AT&T going start carrying indy films on demand when they dont even carry NBA or NHL League Pass?

I fail to see a new revenue model with real potential right now. I'm no genius, but I dont see a turn around coming any time soon unless really big name actors decide to start making small budget movies in order to get them going again.

@attatt: It all boils down to (A) strong story concept, (B) strong execution of script and producing film, and (C) viable distribution model. The first two are up to the creative talent. The last one is just now emerging, I think: A wholly digital approach to distribution. It knocks off virtually all the costs associated with P&A, assuming the filmmakers use viral marketing (and since there are no film prints, no costs there).

If YouTube and other ginormous web-based portals make good on the rumors of creating HD V.O.D., and viewers are actually willing to pay for original movies in first-run on the web, then depending upon how big the response is in that first run, the percentage of revenues that go back to the filmmakers, and the deals they cut for all the standard ancillary forms of revenue (i.e., international, flight, hotel, DVD, etc), it is possible that we can see a sustainable model for producing and distributing indie films - bypassing theaters entirely.

And once those digital distribution entities emerge with all their relationships and their own distribution 'network,' then in theory, you, the filmmaker, can present your finished movie to them to distribute and you get a percentage of the revenues. For instance, Amazon on their ebook pays, I believe, 35% to the author.

The thing is, there are people in Hwood working on this type of distribution model right now.

We'll see.