N D at 2014-11-11 19:49:33:
I took a stab at 1991: Face/Off Color of Night Cutthroat Island Terminal Velocity The River Wild Cliffhanger Boys of Summer (The Sandlot) First Knight Amos & Andrew Extremely Violent (Last Action Hero) Body of Evidence Looks like mostly Action/Thriller
Scott at 2014-11-11 20:41:35:
Thanks, Nick. I'll update the OP with those additions.
Kalen at 2014-11-11 20:45:19:
Just curious -- does anybody know about how many specs get sold and optioned each year? I know it fluctuates but there has to be a rough median somewhere out there, right?
Scott at 2014-11-11 21:46:21:
There is no way of knowing with any certainty. Even the terms themselves -- "spec script," "sale," "option" -- have slippery meanings. If Cameron Crowe or Diablo Cody write a script on their own time, as they have, then it gets set up at a studio, something that was nearly assured from the get-go given their credibility in the business, is that considered a spec sale? Technically, yes. But not in the traditional sense of a writer putting a script out into the marketplace to see what happens. When a writer works on a project on spec, it goes through several years of development, then finally finds financing, cast and crew, and goes into production, is that a spec sale? Again technically, in a way, yes. But I don't include those in my tallies. Even option is elusive. Does a free option count? $1? Or does it have to be for $5-10K for it to count? Hell, I've seen some outfits who count writers signing with manager-producers as deals. Finally while a lot of deals get reported in the trades or online tracking services, many do not. I've interviewed writers who have told me about spec sales which had happened, but they couldn't comment on them for a variety of reasons. So are the numbers tallied here of any value whatsoever? I would argue yes. I have used pretty much the same way of assessing what constitutes a spec sale for 20 years, so the numbers in relation to themselves, for example, year to year sales, are helpful. Also several times per year, a writer will email me with a deal from the past, which I'll add to the database, so the actual sales are becoming more precise over time. All that is a long forward to give you some data per your question, Kalen. First check out this post which compares sales from 2011-2013 (average sales per year: 103) to those from 2008-2010 (average sales per year: 70). Second check out these sales totals from 1991-2013: 1991: 28 1992: 40 1993: 89 1994: 101 1995: 173 1996: 155 1997: 141 1998: 110 1999: 83 2000: 92 2001: 101 2002: 114 2003: 90 2004: 75 2005: 58 2006: 60 2007: 64 2008: 87 2009: 67 2010: 55 2011: 110 2012: 99 2013: 100 Bear in mind, these numbers do not include silent deals, many options which go unreported, and perhaps most importantly specs that land writers representation, get them in for meetings, and result in going up for open writing assignments. Final point: After three solid years, 2014 looks like it will be a down year for spec sales. By my count, we are currently at 54, although every December, I go through deals listed by other outfits to see if I missed some. Invariably I do. So if I had to project, I'd say we could end up around 65 official spec sales for the year. Is that a one year drop or a signal we are in a spec slump a la 2008-2010, or even worse like 2005-2007? Your guess is as good as mine.
Kalen at 2014-11-11 22:14:46:
Wow, thanks for the info Scott. I had no idea it was that vague with so many exceptions. I guess I always thought sales were pretty well known. It's interesting to see the influx from about '94 to '98. Each of those four years over 100 specs got sold. I wonder why that was... All in all, I think this has to be viewed as encouraging for aspiring writers. I know I thought this number would be much lower than it is. Thanks again.