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I was listening to this interview of a pro writer that wrote for the studios (forgot his name), but he had an interesting alternative take to this. He said the odds aren't as large as you think. He said that for writers that did not reach a mastery of the craft the odds are 0....and among the colleagues that had mastered the craft at a certain level and could deliver the odds increase significantly where they are getting the bulk of the work. The next part he did agree with you....to reach that mastery, it certainly takes a leap of faith and you won't know whether you have the goods until you've spent countless hours in pursuit so you might as well do it out of passion.