Scott, your observations are spot on. The best explanation I have heard as to why success in the gaming industry does not translate to success in the film industry is summed up in this post by Brain McDonald: http://invisibleinkblog.blogspot.com/2007/01/new-holy-grail.html
Simply put, despite the similar elements of character, setting, conflict, etc., games and movies serve very different functions. Games are scenarios while movies tell stories.
I am convinced that the only way to adapt a successful game into a successful movie requires at a minimum:
(1) the movie be supplemental to the game (e.g. the telling of a sidestory already hinted at or mentioned in the game but not fully explored.)
(2) that it be set in the same world as the game, include the same characters, etc.
(3) that it remain true to the rules of the game world.
(4) brief explanations for concepts exclusive to the game (so the movie will be accessible to a wider demographic)
The movies listed above that I've seen all break one or more of these rules (and you should add '
Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within' to your list). You cannot have a successful movie based on a game franchise by disenfranchising the game's core players (by ignoring #2 or #3). The game must remain primary in the minds of the core players because they will also be the first viewers (thus #1). If they don't like the movie, they'll tell their friends, the movie will get a bad reputation, and no one else will see it.
IMO, this is the most likely route to a "reproducible" success and therefore a Hollywood franchise. Tomb Raider is an exception because (1) Angelina Jolie was cast as the female protagonist Laura Croft, (2) female protagonists are rare among games, (3) the vast majority of gamers are male, and (4) most male gamers are pervs. Therefore, Michael Fassbender and Tom Hardy will not bring gamers to the theatre like she did and both Ubisoft and Regency are going to be disappointed.