I've been crafting a theory on hollywood action movies; that every decade ends with one that begins the cycle for the next ten years. the movie should be a summary for everything that precedes it, aesthetically and thematically, and a rebellion for the decade before. so - in the 80s, Everyman begins taking over tough guy roles, America begins to feel nihilistic about excess, and everything leads up to Die Hard; which places one ordinary man in the midst of all sorts of excess. Then that chamber action movie format takes over the next ten years, as the heroes become less and less human, more and more stylish, with the middle of the decade interrupted by Jackie Chan and John Woo, calling everyone out, which cumulates to The Matrix (with a few failed prototypes such as Strange Days and The Blade along the way) - collectively addressing the technological paranoia, and ingeniously pairing it with inhumanity/super-humanity. which gives way to ten years of superheroism and kungfu in everything, until Bourne Ultimatum. Bourne Ultimatum addresses both the longing back to realism, as well as America/ the world's sickness of the Bush bullshit. Leading us to the beginning of a decade of special forces type movies with a lot of tactical direction and ripped-from-the-headline relevance. And whoever guesses the next successful marriage and gets to make a movie about it with proper timing, obviously, gets to be king.

Pete, very interesting. You should approach Script magazine with that idea for an article. If that doesn't work, I'm happy to post on GITS, even as a series: Part 1: The Die Hard paradigm, Part 2: The Matrix paradigm, Part 3: The Bourne Identity paradigm. Those are the kind of analysis you see in the NYT and LAT on Sundays, assessing recent trends in movies. You could go through all the major action movies released from the mid-80s on (you could do that at Box Office Mojo) to support your thesis. Keep me in touch on what you do with that, okay? And you pose a great question: What is the next action hero type?

Don't mean to be a downer, but the problem with using 80s action movies to prove anything, is that every kind of action movie and action hero archetype saw daylight in the 80s, from Die Hard to Lethal Weapon, Beverly Hills Cop to Predator, Terminator to Raiders of the Lost Ark, Robocop, Empire Strike Back, Top Gun and so on. And all of these movies had numerous imitators because of the huge direct to video market that existed at the time. Neither the Matrix nor the Bourne movies have spawned anywhere near the same number, even accounting for time.

forgot to mention 48 Hrs and First Blood.

pliny, you're right. the market was significantly larger in the 80s, which saw the birth of the action movie boom. it was the action-ization of all American archetypes. the james dean, the mcqueen, the muscle, the hard edged cop...etc. all get to run away from explosions and shoot guns. however, I believe Die Hard's influence lasted longer through the 90s, as the studios began producing fewer and fewer action movies again.

predictions draw the most ridicule, so allow me to be goofball for a sec - I think the next wave of action movies will be a reaction to the current wave of globe-trotting, political stuff. I think movies like Winter's Bone, as well as shows like Justified and Breaking Bad (and couple of smaller budget movies beginning to surface), are paving way for regional heroes and local colors.

but on the other side of the token - you can have folks incorrectly guessing the trend and creating a whole string of flops - the Iraq war films over the last five-six years, for example.

This is way too complicated. A better way to look at this: "Wicked" is the Wizard of Oz from the perspective of a different character. This is a common practice. The Matrix is the same plot as the German Sci-fi classic "World on a Wire". (1978?) But that movie was from the perspective of Morpheus (The Teacher). The Matrix is from the perspective of Neo (The Student). In "World on a Wire" they sit in a chair and enter the simulation world through a phone booth -- pretty much the same as the Matrix. That movie was remade as an American film called "The Thirteenth Floor", which incidentally came out the same year as "The Matrix". Both those movies were based on a novel as the source material -- more copying. LOL.

If I were a betting man, I'd expect to see action movies consisting of one of these four things: i) return of a Dirty Harry type character, only instead of psychos and lowlifes, he's gonna fight corporate types. ii) Star Wars 2.0. ie Space Opera, but darker. iii) New kind of buddy movie, a la 48 hrs/lethal weapon. iv) And just because I'm writing one, a Bridesmaids/Sex in the City meets Die Hard/Bourne type movie, where the protagonists are women who kick ass.