I think you guys are over estimating these story "Theories". "Million Dollar Baby" had about three themes going and it flip flopped between protagonists. The story was clunky, messy, and not focused but won a bunch of Academy Awards and made a lot of money.

Multiple themes or story threads will not sink a movie. Certainly many focused, structured, solid stories flop every year.

Making a successful movie is more based on randomness.

I had never heard of this movie.

I read Scott's text and watched the trailer. I have no idea what this movie is about after watching the trailer and I don't think the movie knows either.

This looks like a poster child of what not to do relative to the 'Tone' discussion yesterday.

I predict a total flame-out should they play the game. I think Sony should just eat the losses and let it die.

@Dave – Check out the trailer for Million Dollar Baby and you'll see how they marketed that film. It's focused on one thing - an underdog female boxer - and only hints at the B stories – Clint's past with his daughter and Hilary's family trouble. I know some people felt deceived when they went to see this film and they learned what it was really about, but had they shown that in the trailers, it would have been a box office disaster.

My comments about Moneyball were only based on what I saw in the trailer and how they could save this film by selling it in a better way. If they want to make this movie a success, they should rethink how they market it and focus on fewer elements - go for the gut and play up the human emotions, not the cerebral sports statistics or whatever they were going for, or the other way around. I'd go with the former.

We shouldn't have to guess what kind of movie this will be. That is a recipe for disaster. All successful marketing campaigns do one thing right - they get the audience in the seats. That's not gonna happen if they can't tell us what we should expect from this particular movie-going experience.

Marketing people, at least the ones I've known and including the one I interviewed on GITS, follow the KISS formula: Keep It Simple, Stupid. That's why they love movies with a strong story concept. The fact Moneyball's trailer hits on a bunch of different story dynamics suggests they're having the same issues as noted in the article when it was being developed: What is the story?

Perhaps they're throwing out that first trailer to see which story element resonates most with what target demo, then push the hell out of that message in subsequent ads.

I know this is a business, but Christ, when I read stuff like this I long for the 1970's.

Oh, when movies were an art-form...

Can't we just say, "Hey Moneyball looks kind of interesting. I'll give it a shot?"

For baseball fans, the movie is about the scene in the trailer where Beane is confronted with a room full of old men parsing old-school scouting reports for arcane personal information, like fortune tellers reading tea leaves.

Beane bets the farm on a young, wonky upstart with a new theory of assembling a team based on objective analysis, and the trailer seems to show him being vindicated.

A greater problem for marketing a movie about the supposed success of the Oakland As during the Beane era is that anyone who's paid attention at all will remember that the Athletics won several division titles in the AL West but haven't made it past the American League Championship Series under Beane.

Okay, so I'll be the first guy to sell out and write a Vin Diesel family flick for Disney. Hell, right now I'm building three different screenplays: 1) Indie (done) 2) Comedy/Horror (almost done) and 3) Family Fantasy (up next), so I can have a decent pitch or two when I get into a meeting.

However, there are times when I wish the ghosts of Casavettes and Faulk would just come back and slap the shit out of everyone in Hollywood.

@Nick: You like Cassavetes? You'll like this and this.

I am ridiculously positive minded about the future of filmmaking. With digital technology, a built-in distribution system (the Internet), and some stumbling first steps toward financing and marketing models, I believe we will see an explosion of quality titles in the indie movie scene in the next 20 years. And Hollywood will do its part by continuing with its bifurcated approach: Big budget franchise movies, then the specialty type movies for awards season.

Scott, the reason you think marketers focus on story is because you're a writer. When the studios speak with "you" they talk to your profession (They're salesmen).

When the writers are gone, the real marketing talk takes over. A story about baseball (huge market). Good.

We have a big star (Brad Pitt), an Indie star (Phillip Seymour Hoffman) and a young star (Jonah Hill). Good.

We're covered on the writing -- we got a guy that won an award (Aaron Sorkin), and it's based on a best selling book -- we can't get blamed.

And we've hit our main audiences personally with the Oakland A's (California) and the N.Y. Mets (N.Y.) -- which both use Moneyball.

I think this is the more accurate way studios look at movies. No exec is going to say "Man, you guys should see the midpoint Ordeal in this script". LOL.

Or "Wow, the characterization and the Inciting Incident in this story is great. Make sure it's in the trailer". LOL.

Even Pixar (The story kings) for their last project went with the movie that had a better toy behind it -- Cars 2.

My two pennies.

@Dave: My main focus in terms of movies and marketing from a screenwriting standpoint has always been about story concept. That represents the essence of the story and that represents the essence -- at least narratively -- of the marketing strategy. The text and subtext of that observation, one I make frequently, is to underscore the critical importance in a writer's choice of story concept for a script project. If it's a great one that the studio feels like can be marketed easily and well, that is a major plus for that script.

I never suggested that marketing people need to know or particularly care about story structure, "midpoint ordeal" or otherwise. Not sure where you picked up that idea. My point in the OP was to screenwriters. You can ensure a script is a more commercially viable commodity if you have a clear understanding of what the focus of the story is and conveys that in the pages.

Can Paul Haggis take a complex, mutlilayered story like "Million Dollar Baby" and get it produced? Yes, but he's Paul Haggis. For aspiring writers, if they want to take a Route 1 approach to breaking into the business, best to write a spec script that has a streamlined, clean and focused narrative based on a strong high concept.

The fact it took Moneyball seven years to get produced speaks volumes, I think, about the inherent difficulties in what precisely the story is, or perhaps more tellingly, what the studio thought the story should be, precisely boiling down to how are they going to market this sucker.

I love baseball. I am quite familiar with Billy Beane. All the filmmakers involved in this project are top notch. It's not a sequel. It's not a prequel. It's not based on a comic book. [Not that I have anything against movies like that in principle, just the sheer quantity of them that wears me down]. So I have a lot of reasons to want to see the movie succeed.

I don't know what Pitt's deal is on this project, whether he slashed his fee and gross participation. Same with Sorkin. But with a reported $41M budget, throw in P&A, to break even the movie will have to do $75-100M domestic B.O., depending upon how the movie plays internationally. Can a sports drama do that?

So as long as you understand I wasn't saying marketing people ought to grasp the subtleties of a movie's story structure, I'd say we're pretty much having an agreement. And I hope Moneyball is a hit.

Scott, great points. It's an exciting thread about the second great American pastime: predicting movie box office.

I think this movie has covered "all the bases" and will be "a hit". ;)

Great blog.

@Scott, I freaking worship Cassavetes (even though I spelled his name wrong in a drunk-post).

As soon as I finish my pages for the day, I'm hitting up both those vids. Thanks!