Not this weekend... I will be seeing Super 8 super late.

I'll be watching. JJ Abrams has yet to do any wrong in my opinion.

I guess you could put me in the "definite interest" column.

I never know how to feel about tracking. To me, it feels like stats in sports. In the right context, they provide a tangible measure of something your gut is telling you. In the wrong context, or with no context at all, it's basically like reading tea leaves. And at least I know how sports stats are calculated. This is a total mystery.

The source story doesn't indicate who is being surveyed. I assume it's a cross section of people so the studio can get a measurement of the entire moviegoing population... but are they measuring response to, say, the geeks going through the labyrinth of viral marketing material? Or people who, like Abrams, grew up on Spielberg and might "get" the vibe Abrams is going for? Is there a way to track and measure a movie driven by word of mouth?

The other referendum on originality, though no one talked about it this way as far as I've seen (oooh - new Internet shorthand: AFAIS) was The Beaver, which made no splash whatsoever. The reason this bothered me is because Kyle Killen was a Black List darling and he seems to have the kind of ideas every writer wants to see more of, yet two of his projects have tanked - Lonestar and The Beaver. From what I read on general blogs, not filmmaker sites, no one was blaming Gibson for The Beaver's failure. Instead, there were lots of comments like, "Um, a movie about a talking beaver puppet? Lame!" Some of the comments were so practical and "duh!" they even convinced me that the concept was a loser, and I read the script and loved it. So, while the script was executed brilliantly, the concept was ultimately too hard of a sell. But the bottom line is this: does two-strikes against a fresh voice like Killen mean he gets one more chance? Is this new series he has coming out his make-or-break moment, or will people keep throwing money at him based his the strength of his writing, not his track record?

@Annika W: IMHO, "The Beaver" should have been a $5M movie aimed at the specialty crowd. As soon as Gibson and Foster got involved, it became entirely something else, including a $20M+ budget. There is just no way a movie with this particular type of tone and a challenging concept could recoup those type of dollars.

Re Killen's future: I doubt you could find anyone in Hwood who doesn't think Killen is a gifted writer. The pilot to his new series "Awake" (formerly REM) has generated a lot of buzz. The fact they've brought on a heavy hitter as showrunner (Howard Gordon formerly of "24") suggests the powers that be believe the show can be successful. But TV, like movies, is a crapshoot.

The thing is at any point Killen could cash in and go mainstream. For example, Tom McCarthy (The Station Agent, The Visitor, Win-Win) just signed to write "Home Movies," a big supernatural family comedy for DreamWorks. No shame in making a buck as commercial movies and TV series are as hard to make as offbeat ones. John Sayles has been venturing back and forth from indie to commercial writing for years, using the latter to help fund the former. For all we know, Killen may have been doing uncredited rewrites and polishes on mainstream projects. But from all indications, he's happy trolling the unique narrative waters he has chosen to work in up to this point.

I just hope "Awake" is a success.

But do you think if Awake goes the way of his other two big projects - LoneStar and The Beaver - there will be fallout? In other words, will he be put in movie jail, or is it likely that people can over look a track record with red ink all over it? When do people NEED to make bank, as opposed to just being innovative and risky? Is there a cut-off?

Another thing Killen has going for him is he is a heckuva nice, well grounded guy. People want to work with a guy like that. Doesn't mean they'll keep throwing good money after bad, but I have a feeling (read: It is tracking well in my focus groups) that he'll have enough success to make a good run.

On the notion of referendums -- Why is it we only account for failures when issuing a referendum? Nobody says, "Hey, Avatar blew everybody out of the water! Sequels are DEAD!! DEAD I tell you!!"

Never heard of it.


(j/k)

I really really really want to see this succeed. Another original movie, let alone JJ Abrams and Spielberg. Hopefully it has good word of mouth and some legs.

The problem with SUPER 8 is that it fails the all-important "What is it?" test.

Is it an 80's style, family-friendly adventure?

Or is it a sci-fi horror movie, with young kids?

Confuse your intended audience, and pay the price. Young kids and families won't see it, because it looks too scary. Many adults won't see it, because it looks too much like a kids' movie.

That only leaves cinephiles (like myself and other readers of this blog), who'll go see it, simply because of the pedigrees of the people behind it.

Let's please not hold this movie up as the litmus test for original movie concepts. Instead, perhaps we should be looking at this movie as a cautionary tale of either poor marketing, or a poor concept (i.e. Who's the intended audience?).

@Annika: Every writer is different, every story is different, every life-circumstance is different. If you're creative and flush with cash, you may choose to pass on a mainstream writing opportunity. If you haven't landed a paying gig in six months, you may be willing to write Porky's 10. Remember: Early in his career John Sayles wrote Piranha. I've never seen him interviewed on the subject, but I bet he would say that gig was every bit as much about writing as Matewan. Well, maybe not every bit as much, but certainly in the ballpark.

In other words, at some level, writing is writing.

@CRANKY: Your point about Killen being a good guy and the value of that in terms of possible buyers / employers is spot on. One rule I learned in Hollywood: People like to work with people they like.

Seems straightforward enough, right? And there are certainly great writers who get hired all the time even if they're basically assholes.

But if you can write and you come off as a good guy / gal, chances are you'll get a lot more work than the assholes of the world.

Mindblowing.

First, reporting weekend box office numbers becomes "news."

Then I noticed as recently as last year they began to report on FRIDAY box office numbers.

NOW pundits future projections are "news?!??!?"

Sick sick sick...

To whoever is listening: DO NOT GIVE UP ON ORIGINALITY. Super 8 might not do well, that does not mean we should give up on telling and filming original stories. Eventually some will click with audiences. We just need to keep putting these things out, perhaps with smaller budgets, but keep making them. The business model cannot survive by just making TF 10, 11 and 12. I strongly believe that we are going through a long phase of brand name films, in time, we will return to original films populating the summer season. Sometimes you have to give up a little profit for the good of the industry's longevity and the artists it serves. Film-making is the long game and the only way to preserve it is by being in the game long enough to see the fruits of your labour!